Could we expect that any offspring of Agassi and Graf would be a potential Wimbledon Champion?

The answer statistically could be yes but ONLY if the person was trained correctly in that sport.

The genetic probability of the person being of athletic stature is high but that body could be trained in an alternative sport from a young age. So while genetic status is important, it is the correct training through many years that will produce a champion. How then, can we identify young people, who may become champion swimmers in their future?

This article will identify ONE way of determining swimming potential in young and mature persons and can be carried out from about 10 years of age.

It was suggested by Madsen et al, that 400m velocities could be used to identify potential champion

performances. These were stated under the titles of;

1.352 --> 1.464           1.431 -->1.519                      1.437  --> 1.611 metres/second

Using the Howat/Robson tables the above equate to a 400m velocity of;

4.56 --> 4.33               4.40  --> 4.23                         4.38  --> 4.08

Using only the fastest velocities these equate to speeds at lactate 10 (whole blood lactate oxidase) of;

100m                           200m                                       400m

56.2 secs.                    1m56secs.                              3m47secs

This is confusing, as it apparently makes no differentiation between males and females. The velocities may have been appropriate 20 years ago but it is now suggested that more likely velocities to be able to compete at World level would be Long Course velocity values of;

Females    Sprinter 4.22        Middle Distance 4.23     Long Distance 4.26 max

Males                      3.58                                   4.02                            4.04 max

 This accounts for the approximate 10% difference between males and females under normal health conditions.

Using the Howat/Robson 2x 200m MEGA (Modified East German Aerobic) Test, (Ref.1) individual aerobic velocities can be determined within ONE minute of the test swim being completed and training times can be calculated immediately. Using data collected from the past 25 years, the ages and expected velocities of potential champions as per the tables of interpretation, can be stated as;

                                                Females                      Males

16-17 years                                 4.30's                        4.02/3 v

14-15 years                                 4.40's                        4.14-4.18 v

12-13 years                                 4.50's                        4.22-4.26 v

10-11 years                                 5.00's                        4.32-4.35 v

These velocities can be used as a guide to potential only if monitoring is carried out at least monthly over several years.

It has been said that children do not produce lactic acid. This is totally wrong. If a child’s body is stressed, an increase in lactic acid can be expected. It is through the puberty years that monitoring is essential. With the onset of puberty, a large increase in aerobic capacity may be expected. This will decrease as the hormonal status settles down. Correct monitoring during these years is necessary as the increases and decreases in capacity become more frequent. Without monitoring, overtraining is likely and permanent damage is possible. Using the above velocities, if potential is suspected, extreme care should be taken with that swimmer and the potential nurtured over the years, especially if the swimmers attend any training camps which may be alien to their normal training environment. At that time accurate medical monitoring should take place with the results interpreted by qualified staff.

The aerobic status is only one side of the coin therefore the anaerobic levels must be determined.

There are several ways of testing for the anaerobic capacity but peak lactates after racing are shown here.

If we look at a few race examples that took place in Britain, we can see the difference in body capacity.

A British and Scottish record was set in this race, May 1992. 100m freestyle.

                               Lactate 3 mins.     5mins.      7mins.     9mins.     11mins.

Name: PK  Time 56.31                 5.6          7.7          7.8         7.2

The first swim indicates good pacing throughout the race and if the lactate had approached 10 instead of 8, the time would have been 1.2 seconds faster but at the time the anaerobic status of that swimmer was only near to 8.

The second swim with a slower time and a higher lactate appears to indicate that the swimmer went out fast and hung on and this is consistent with a better anaerobic power than the first swimmer.

The second swimmer has gone on to be a top class 50m performer, while the first swimmer has consistently done well in 100 and 200m events at a World level.

In the same year,

Sandra Volker     56.24              7.3           8.1         8.6          9.6          8.4

A faster time with a higher lactate indicates a good effort throughout the race and training that has obviously been targeted at both the aerobic and anaerobic status.

In most publications (Ref.4) a half way split lactate has always been stated at 60 – 65% of the swimmer’s known peak lactate at 3-5 minutes after the race completion. It would appear from the data now available that the half way lactate might be as high as 67 – 75% of the maximum attained at the 3-minute time (4mins. maximum).

The first swimmer reached the 70% mark at the 3minute sample.  The second swimmer was at 82% at the same time.  The German swimmer was around 75%.

Backstroke results 100m.

Name: HM Time 57.08                  3.6           5.8          6.6          7.4        6.8

               Final 55.4                     6.2           9.1          9.0           8.7 Mmol/l

The heat swim was slow pacing reaching only 48% of the maximum. The final swim nearly 2 seconds faster reached 69% of the maximum, a far more controlled and paced swim effort.

Fly 100m Female.

Name: PS Time 1.02.78                5.9            7.5         7.6         7.4 OQT at that time.

This represents 76% of maximum with controlled pacing.

Fly 200m Time 2.14.97                 6.6            7.3         8.5         9.1          8.8

This represents 72% of her maximum with controlled pacing. It does show that the maximum body level of over 9mmols was not attained in the 100m race. If this level had been achieved, it would have been at 67% of her maximum with a time equating to 1 second faster.

It is therefore appears essential when coaching swimmers at overload for half way potential that exact lactate levels are reached and definitely not exceeded.

The highest lactates should be expected in the 200 and 400 IM races. The lactate after the first stroke can be expected around 50-60% of maximum, rising to 70-75% after the second. The breaststroke then gives a slight lactate recovery increasing about 1-2 mmols at the end of the third leg. This then accounts for nearly 85-88% of the known maximum. The freestyle leg increases the lactate around a further 2 mmols.

For example in training from a push start, a female with a reference of 4.30 and therefore a training time of 1.03.4 at threshold for 100m, would need to swim 1minute to reach lactate 7 and 57.6 to reach lactate 10. Subtracting the dive time would give the potential competitive swim time. Therefore it is critical that accurate calculations are made for training and not guessed from the swimmers current best time, as they may not be able to repeat that effort at the time of calculation.

In the recent European Short Course Championships, our only female medallist gained a silver in the 400m freestyle with a time of 4.01. This equates to a training velocity of 4.26 and a peak lactate around 10. This was the expected time having been calculated prior to competing from the current aerobic and anaerobic status. The winner, with a peak of 12, equates to around 3 seconds faster from a similar training level.

The swimming velocities stated in this article were monitored through many years of junior swimming and continued in most cases to senior level. To identify potential, it is suggested that these velocities are accurate for the development of champion swimmers. If a club swimmer does not achieve these velocities at the correct ages it is probable that World class swimming is not within the genetic make-up of that person. Good club and county level swimming may be possible but the step up to national and onwards to World Class is unlikely to be achieved.

All blood testing was carried out with clinical grade analysers to maximise the accuracy and precision of the results. Standardisation of the clinical instruments was checked with external Quality Control material.

Therefore the results can be stated as clinically accurate. Hand-held analysers should not be used if clinical accuracy is needed, as these cannot be quality controlled. (Ref.5)

Many of our British swimmers have attained peak lactates in excess of 12 mmols, (Ref.2) this has usually occurred due to extreme fatigue and associated with slow times. The known peak lactate can be increased if training is performed with the correct work/rest intervals. (Ref.3) It is however, probably genetically set at a maximum for that individual and can only be altered further by using banned substances. The mean peak lactate of British swimmers during the years 1985 to 1995 showed a dramatic decline (Ref.4). While there has been an attempt to correct this in the last 10 years, not enough accurate work appears to have been carried out on this capacity.

The blood monitoring of swimmers should be carried out approximately every 3 weeks as this time factor allows for a physiological response to training. For convenience, we could test every month. This is essential for the correct monitoring of a training stimulus. Training times can then be adjusted faster or slower dependant on the results. The human body can not just get faster, it is a normal body response to slow down and this is important to detect otherwise over-training will occur. Any clinical reactions that occur due to air travel, heat, humidity or an increase in training yardage can be identified quickly. The testing merely indicates what the body is capable of and when it is ready to resume the normal programme.

If we use the figure of 12 mmols. (Whole blood lactate oxidase method) as an example, it can be stated that a female with a reference of 4.28 long course should achieve a competition time circa. 1.57.6. for 200m freestyle. A 4.30 reference would give 1.58-1.59 and at a 10-mmol maximum the swim time could be expected around 1.59.5- 2.00 mins.

It is essential that British swimmers anaerobic capacities should reach at least 12 mmols of lactic acid and therefore 7.6 to 8.4 at the overload stage, this being checked during training to make certain those levels are attained. If we do not check, we cannot know for certain that the training stimulus being applied is correct. We cannot expect our swimmers to achieve that lactate level in competitive events if the body has not been trained correctly for high level racing. At a similar aerobic capacity, the swimmer that attains the higher lactate with controlled pacing will win.

While British records have been broken in the last 10 years, they rarely have kept pace with World performances. On the odd occasion that we have expected a performance matching the rest of the world, it rarely occurred. Lactate testing could have given the information to answer the question, why?

All results gained from peak lactate and aerobic monitoring show that with a good aerobic capacity and the ability to produce high lactates, world class swimming is achievable.

Our swimmers can only swim the races they have been prepared for. If the training was wrong it is not the fault of our swimmers. Recent Olympic results from our swimmers have shown slow times with associated high lactates. This indicates that the swimmer tried as hard as the body would allow and that the problem was with training and did not occur during their swim. If the Australians, Canadians, Swedes and Americans consider that testing lactates routinely during training and at competitions gives essential information on performance, could we not do the same? The information obtained from warm-up, aerobic tests, peak lactates and warm-down, provides a valuable guide for future training, competition and coaching.

If we wish to compete at their level, the job of monitoring must be carried out accurately for the benefit of our swimmers. Following the suggestions in this article will begin the process of seeking potential future champions, what happens to them, as youngsters, will set the stage for senior swimming.

Dr. Malcolm W Robson.

Ref.1. Streamlining Lactates. Swimming Technique. Feb-Apr. 1990 Page 32.

Ref.2. Maintenance of aerobic capacity during anaerobic work. Swimming Times Oct.1990 Page 20.

Ref.3. Basic principles of race pace training. Swimming Times. July 1995 Page 25

Ref.4. A 10 year study of peak lactates. Swimming Times. May 1999 Page 24.

Ref.5. Reliability and Validity of the LactatePro. Stelios. G. Psycharakis et al. Leeds Met. University.